12.3 Mitigating Risk Plans or Exploiting Opportunities

12.3.1 The threats to the delivery of LTP2, as identified in the SWOT analysis are set out in the following table, along with the actions we are taking to reduce those risks.


Type of Risk Description Measures to Reduce Risk
 Financial/Resource If, following public consultation, the TIF bid does not proceed, there will be insufficient resources to deliver the long term strategy, including Metrolink Phase 3b LTP2 strategy will be reviewed following the outcome of public consultation and subsequent decision by AGMA, along with the GM economic and spatial strategies. This will also include work to take account of the impacts on LDF Core Strategies currently being developed.
Cost of concessionary fare payments (exceeding government allocation) could divert resources from elsewhere. Perception by operators that payments to them are inadequate could lead to fare increases or service withdrawals. Collective lobbying of Government by all PTEs

Careful monitoring of the situation
Inflation of construction costs due to demand for materials and labour Various measures such as Framework Agreements, pr-ordering/payment of materials. Track on Oldham-Rochdale line is being re-aligned and re-levelled to save on new rail
Uncertainty over funding for major road schemes eg SEMMMS

Ongoing discussions about the SEMMMS road scheme are happening with the DfT. Consideration of the phasing of delivery of the scheme. Appropriate project management and tendering process


Skill shortages in transport sector Use of Framework Agreements, Delivery Partners (for road maintenance, Metrolink delivery).

Use of Competency Frameworks to raise skill levels
Lack of control over rail and bus networks Rail capacity issues (overcrowded services, Manchester Rail Hub capacity) Ongoing discussions.

Additional carriages ordered nationally, some of which will come to the north-west. Network Rail commitment to a study of capacity issues.


Increasing priority given to inter-city rail services at the expense of local Discussions with operators
New developments may not be served by bus Joint working between GMPTE and planning authorities to identify needs at an early stage.

Review of bus network has considered potential development sites, but implementation will depend on TIF proceeding
Social Factors Risk of fall in demand for public transport, either through trend to longer trips and increasing real incomes or due to recession or increased home working/shopping Travel planning and promotional activities
24 hour economy spreading the demand for public transport Continuation of Nightbus network
Economic downturn may decrease support for environmental policies including sustainable transport Measures to improve performance and quality of public transport will increase its attractiveness.

Promotion of health benefits of active travel to encourage cycling and walking
Changes in the Education system are likely to increase travel demand Continuation of joint working between GMPTE and Education Authorities/schools

Lobbying of Government for additional funding to meet the new requirements
Long term decline in walk trips Promotion of health benefits

Continuation of measures to improve the pedestrian environment  and increase safety
Management of Delivery Competing demands for roadspace reduce bus penetration or priority (pedestrianisation, Network Management duty, demands for other users in bus lanes) Joint working between Highway Authorities, GMPTE and operators will be improved through Corridor Partnerships
Failure of safety camera routes Monitoring
Authorities may adopt different parking standards if draft PPS4 is implemented, potentially increasing car use
Joint working via Greater Manchester Planning Officers Group
Potential for lack of consistency between ten Taxi Licensing Authorities
Increase in collaborative working
Lack of integration of transport with LAAs The majority of Districts have included transport targets in their LAAs. Engagment with Local Strategic Partnerships on the LTP Progress Report will help to increase understanding of how transport can help to deliver LAA outcomes.
External Factors Terrorist attack on the transport network Implementation of Manchester City Council Emergency Planning Procedures

Contingency Plan is integral part of GMPTE Business Continuity Plan
Impact of Climate Change on the local economy AGMA commissioned a 'Mini Stern' Review to assess impact
Transport Bill may change governance arrangements AGMA has already started a review of governance arrangements to improve joint working and accountability
Sub National Review will require a single Regional Strategy to replace Regional Spatial Strategy and regional Economic Strategy
Ensure that GM authorities are fully represented in new working arrangements

12.3.2 A number of opportunities have arisen that should help us to deliver our LTP2 strategy. These are:

  • The possibility of substantial additional funding through the Transport Innovation Fund, should the scheme proceed
  • Improved partnership working through Corridor Partnerships (eg in terms of tailoring programmes to meet wider local objectives)
  • A number of regeneration initiatives provide the opportunity to address transport problems eg Central Salford
  • Joint transport modelling to provide information on the impact of proposed development across Greater Manchester will inform the 'evidence base' for Local Development Frameworks and improve transport/land use integration
  • The wider remit of the Highways Agency has improved joint working eg on Area Travel Plan initiatives
  • Additional capacity on Metrolink by 2009 will help to reduce congestion
  • The development of the TIF Bid has involved joint working with bus operators, which provides a good basis for future co-operation
  • The establishment of a Central Road Safety Team will allow more conurbation-wide initiatives to be put in place
  • The Performance Measurement and Management review of how the GM authorities work together to implement the LTP strategy will help to improve our delivery (eg through the  establishment of a high level officer group to manage performance