3.2 Expected Change 2008- 2010/11
3.2.1 The economy needs to continue to grow to enable sufficient jobs to be created for those who are currently without work. In addition, the Regional Economic Strategy identifies the wider Manchester City Region as having the potential to make the most significant contribution to the future economic growth of the North of England. The current estimate is that Gross Value Added in Greater Manchester will grow by 2.8% per annum between 2007 and 2022. There is the potential for this to rise to 3.2% per annum if Greater Manchester is able to make the most of its assets and realise the opportunities available.
3.2.2 Although slower than anticipated national growth rates mean that it may be ambitious to maintain previous growth trends in the short term, our objective and that of both the North West Region and the Government is to raise GVA in line with the above estimate. Only in this way can the output gap between the North of England and the rest of England be reduced.
3.2.3 An efficient and effective transport system will be essential in order to deliver continued economic growth. The transport network is extensive and caters for a high volume of commuter, business and local journeys. In 2006/07, there were 13.1 million vehicle kilometres of traffic on the motorways, A and B roads in Greater Manchester. The rail and Metrolink networks carried 22 million and 20 million journeys respectively and the bus network carried 224 million journeys. However the scale of the movement means that some parts of the network are now at, or over, capacity at peak times. In addition the quality and reliability of public transport varies across the conurbation and for some journeys does not offer an attractive alternative to the car.
3.2.4 This report outlines the work we will be doing in the next three years, up to 2011, to deliver the LTP2 strategy. This will not be sufficient to deliver lasting solutions to meet the challenge of sustaining growth in the longer term. To do this we will need to encourage wide-scale changes in travel behaviour that will bring about a mode shift from car to public transport. This will require significant improvements in both the capacity and quality of the public transport network, including significant improvements in accessibility, combined with measures that discourage car use on routes or at times when there is congestion. On this basis we have developed an investment package for the Transport Innovation Fund, which has been given Programme Entry Status by DfT. Public consultation is currently underway and a decision on whether to proceed will be taken by AGMA in December 2008.