Overall Approach

Given the complexity of Greater Manchester, there is a need to analyse problems both at the conurbation level, and also at the local level.

We have analysed our comprehensive monitoring data from recent years to identify current trends, and quantify issues and problems. These analyses have been undertaken separately for the whole of Greater Manchester, and also for five segments: the Regional Centre and the North West, North East, South West, and South East segments. The results have been discussed by representatives of authorities in each of the respective segments, to enable a fuller interpretation and understanding of the problems and issues to be obtained.

Clearly many of the problems and issues identified are of a local nature. But when we set them down segment by segment we identified very many consistent themes. We have therefore chosen, for the most part, to set down the problems and issues within the separate ‘shared priority’ areas, with specific local examples where appropriate. The exception to this is the regional centre which is different in kind from the other segments, and is therefore dealt with individually in a separate section (4.4).

We have then sought to look at future problems. Our approach has begun by taking on board the assumptions and agreements of the various regional and sub-regional plans in related areas ( housing/economic development). We have fed these into our Strategy Planning Model (SPM) to provide estimates of transport patterns and conditions in 2011 and beyond.

The SPM was originally developed in the mid-nineties by a partnership between the Greater Manchester local authorities / GMPTE and the Highways Agency. DfT transport economists/modellers have also been involved throughout its birth and subsequent development. While its outputs need to be interpreted with care, we believe it provides useful guidance of the likely broad trends in transport in Greater Manchester under various assumptions of future economic conditions.

In addition, because of the centrality of ‘ congestion’ as a key problem in urban transport, we commissioned an independent study of congestion in Greater Manchester. This was intended to provide guidance in a number of areas, including:

  • an assessment of current and future levels of congestion
  • an assessment of how the identified congestion is likely to impact on the sub-regional economy in the future

We have also used the analysis carried out in the multi-modal studies conducted over previous years.

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